Monday, August 22, 2011

That Was The Week That Was-3rd Week August

  • quickdraw Get used to it. Traders are tuned to selling first and sorting it out later. Last week there was no good news just rumor and lots of questions. Congress and the President went on vacation and let investors swing in the wind- the Prez refusing to call Congress back from vacation and lamely explaining in a campaign speech before leaving, ‘…maybe constituents could talk some sense into them…’ and all the while I thought it was the reason he was hired…
  • world leaders What do all these folks have in common?

The Dow is off  15% in the last 4 weeks and down 6.6% for 2011. And, according to Rod Smyth on Friday’s Market Wrap on CNBC, ‘The direct result of policy makers!’

Here are the rest of the usual suspects…  us congress

  • With the 10-year Treasury at or close to 2% investors don’t sell equities here and buy bonds.

I expect it will take years to correct the damage done by this administration and Congress.

From The Street -This coming week expect global uncertainty to continue to over shadow equity fundamentals. The worries about Europe falling into (or being driven to) recession are real as Euro politicians are immune to the threat of weak banks and no real plan except patching economic cracks as their appear. Fed Chairman Bernanke will be delivering his annual speech at Jackson Hole this coming Friday. He is expected NOT to announce any new Quantitative Easing. Also, the Chicago Fed announces economic activity Monday, durable goods orders on Wednesday, job numbers on Thursday and Friday revised consumer sentiment and GDP numbers.

Be More Like Buffett and buy on Fear, the problem is that investors are not buying on the dips anymore. fear They are not only disgusted but frustrated at everything and everyone – from the do nothing Congress to the European laggards and U.S. global corporations sitting on oodles of cash.

  • Here’s some good news: For investors who didn't sell in 2008 did the right thing: Here are the facts: For those investors (from Oct. 1 2008 and March 31 2009) who reduced equity positions to zero and stayed out of stocks through June 30 2011 saw an average increase in their account value of 2%. (2) Those who exited equities but then returned to ‘some’ level of stocks after the market decline, their average account balance (same time period) increased by 25%. (3) Those who didn’t sell and stuck it out had their account balance increase by 50%. –Fidelity Investments source.

Banks are verboten to investors sinking ship as Bank of America slowly sinks in value and investors have lightened positions in financials this past week. Reported in the WSJ.

Tech remains hazy and HP especially has become toxic as their reorganization to sell off their PC business. According to The Street’s Cramer the board of HP should be to blame for their mess.cramer2Still Morningstar has it as a five star stock and likes it going forward saying they give credit to HP to cut their tablet and PC business quickly and concentrate on their long term software acquisition.

Software is Eating the World!peeking Marc Andreessen, billionaire investor and HP board member, insists no bubble exists for tech and gives his reasons why software growth is here and growing. He especially details the lack of qualified individuals to work in the area of software since the companies themselves are being run by software programs. Opportunities, Andreessen explained in Monday’s WSJ, are where the USA excels and growth will be.

Jack Bogle, jack bogle Vanguard Indexing Advocate: Jack, in a telephone interview, said that stocks offer the best possible return over the next 10-years when you consider the yield on the 10-year bond and inflation. Stocks offer the same yield plus growth.

Gold bubble brewing….right now a flight to safety but what happens when the real need for metals occurs during inflationary times? Watch gold this coming week and see if it hits 2000 or pulls back.inflation adjusted gold Gold crashed nearly 69% after hitting its peak in 1980. Today uncertainty in Europe and the United States is propelling gold higher. In three years it may well trade lower than it is today. – source Economic Times. August 22nd 2011.

green light Green Light to emerging markets after a 20% plunge in just the past 3 months. Cover story for Barrons.com reported that EM currencies held up remarkably well against their European and American currencies.  China, India, Brazil, Taiwan and South Korea offer strong economic growth at a discount price.

OIL oil pump with the fall of Libya prices may slip. But, according to Thina Saldvedt, senior oil market analyst at Nordea Bank Norge, could be a short term reaction. Libyan oil is especially prized but a lot of the initial production may be needed for domestic use and it could take three years for the country to resume normal output.

Stocks will save your retirement, writes Andrea Coombes for MarketWatch. andrea coombes The stock market is your only hope going forward to overcome the bite of taxes and inflation for retirees. You cannot get to your retirement goal earning 2%-3% in bonds when inflation is running 3 1/2%. The average recent volatility based on the annualized standard deviation of monthly stock market returns of 14% to 15% is only slightly higher than the 13%-14% levels of the 1970s and 1980s. Since 1831 the average is 14.5%. We just don’t like it all crammed into one week or month…

Finally- Abby Joseph Cohen, senior investment strategist at Goldman Sachs abby joseph cohen (and one of the smartest in the game) said to CNBC Friday, ‘The Market may be pricing in a recession but such as severe slowdown in the  U.S. economy is an unlikely scenario.’

Questions call Paul @ 877 783 7080 or write him at pstanley@westminsterfinancial.com. Share this blog with someone who cares about their money.

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