Monday, September 28, 2015

That Was The Week That Was-4th Week September

 

TECHNICAL CHARTS FLASH DANGER FOR BULLS

chart head and shoulders 2015 bear territory

Michael Kahn, Barrons ‘Getting Technical’ writer, reported September 23rd, the Head and Shoulders pattern is forming. It could portend to the markets falling further. However,  head and shoulders patterns do not demand that a decline continue unless the neckline is penetrated to the downside. If buyers emerge, writes Kahn, than the decline will be halted. The good news is that failed bearish technical patterns often result in new bullish conditions. In other words, that could be it for the bears. – Barrons.com 9/23/2015 Source Getting Technical.

 

bull234The U.S stock market is in the ‘middle innings’ of a secular bull run that began in March, 2009.-  Art Hogan, chief marketing strategist at Wunderlich Securities. WSJ- 2-8-2015. ‘

 

federal reserv building in washington WHAT DOES THE FEDERAL RESERVE KNOW THAT INVESTORS DON’T. Friday 9/18 the Dow fell almost 300 points, the single worst day since September 1st and the day after the Federal Reserve voted ‘Nyet’ on an interest rate hike citing global concerns. While there were some (including Jim Cramer) who predicted that even a small(ish) rate hike would tank markets, no one predicted a drubbing if the Federal Reserve did nothing. In last weekend’s ‘Stocks to Watch’ in Barron’s.com, Ben Levisohn reported that Brian Belski of BMO argued the Federal Reserve needed to act and not react. Belski also said that the Fed was sending the wrong message and is focused too much on what was instead of what is. Belski goes on:

  • China volatility not a surprise.
  • U.S. stock market correct was inevitable, expected and healthy.
  • Inflation is muted, and will remain so.
  • The Fed’s conservative tone will not put the brakes on ‘our’ 15-20 year secular bull thesis.  SOURCE BARRONS.COM 9/19/2015

Friday was also ‘Options Expiration Day’, and historically there is added volatility as traders/investors close positions.

 Explaining the (mis) behavior of Markets…

explaining the misbehavior of markets

Fractal Mathematics is an application to better model the financial markets. You may be hearing more of this as time goes on. Fractal is a pattern or shape whose parts echo the whole. A form of geometric repetition. Benoit B. Mandelbrot was the first person to develop a computer program to print graphics. He used the computer graphics to create and display fractal geometric images. Mandelbrot’s basic premise is that things that are considered chaotic actually have an order. By using fractal geometry he discovered that smaller patterns of the whole are inside whatever pattern he was examining. While Modern Portfolio Theory believes that all markets are unpredictable and chaotic Mandelbrot’s findings are that the market moves in patterns. There are periods of extreme risk, and fractal mathematics is one way to understand and use it to the benefit of investors. Here are a few of his ideas that you may find interesting:

  • Trouble runs in streaks. Market turbulence tends to cluster.
  • Markets have personality
  • Markets mislead. People want to see patterns in the world. We see patterns where there are none.
  • Markets in all places and ages work alike.
  • Price changes are not independent of each other. Today does influence tomorrow.  SOURCE 9/17/2015 PROACTIVE ADVISOR MAGAZINE.COM

 

Don’t Let Stock Market Extremists Scare You.scared duck You cannot turn on the t.v. or radio without having someone tell you to sell your investments and run to gold, oil, real estate or mattresses. There is an agenda out there to scare investors into selling what they own and to have them come back and buy the same thing at a higher price, or something the ‘scaree’ is selling. The fact is that 72% of the time since 1947 the S&P 500’s price was up. Add in dividends reinvested and it jumped to 80%. Another fact is that in most years you’re likely to see gains by December 31st. Over rolling 10-year periods the median average annual gain was almost 12%. You can’t get that by going in and out of the market. The only thing you need to do is stay in and ride out the bad times along with the good. Source Money Magazine August 21, 2015 Sam Stovall, S&P Capital IQ equity strategist.

smart mouseThe next time someone tells you to run out of the market or do some other foolishness recite the above and let them do their homework to try and prove you wrong.

cartoon trump44

cartoon obama

Markets Hung On to Gains Monday 9/21 With All Indices Up.

Contradicting Some Experts Robert C. Doll, CFA Senior Portfolio Manager Nuveen Asset Management reported in his 9/21 Weekly Investment Commentary: The Fed’s decision to keep rates on hold may have been a mistake and could act as a headwind for equities.

Deteriorating credit conditions could act as a headwind for equities. We think credit spreads have been widening over the past three months for three reasons:

  • Weakening credit fundamentals
  • Deflationary pressures from emerging markets
  • Concerns over Fed tightening

If credit markets don’t improve in the coming months, equity rallies may be difficult to maintain.-Robert C. Doll 9/21

 

hillaryA Tweet, A Plan For A Plan & A Fall. ‘Price gouging in the specialty drug market is outrageous,’ tweeted Hillary in response to the news that a certain drug maker upped the price of a drug more than 50-fold. Biotech stocks crashed and the iShares biotech ETF fell 4.5%. The presidential hopeful said she would propose a plan to address high drug prices. WSJ 9/21/2015

bill clinton2 Markets are so delicate that any news, rumor or ‘tweet’ causes panic. It wasn’t that long ago that markets shrugged off ‘bad’ news and kept chugging forward.

 

Tuesday Had Another Rough Session. Global Growth Worries Fueled A Commodity Rout. Steel, mining and transportation stocks lagged. Oil fell 1.8%. The 10-year fell to 2.13%. IBD 9-23-2015

 

hillary2The Hillary Drug Cap Plan to Hold Out-of-Pocket Prescription Costs to $250 a Month  would raise premiums and modestly reduce the ranks of the insured, partly to push small businesses to drop coverage. This, according to Jed Graham at IBD, is exactly what drug companies want. Biotech’s continued their slide Tuesday although experts appearing on CNBC Tuesday reported that the sector has endured sell-offs over the past five years and recovered nicely each time. CNBC 9/22/2015

Thursday’s Markets Were Down Triple Digit But Closed Way Off Their Lows. Fed Chief Janet Yellen Spoke After the Close & Assured That The Fed Rate Hike Was Still On for 2015. sources cnbc & WSJ. 9-25-2015

clown carOur Blundering Fed, was the title of a missive sent last Tuesday by Mark J Grant, managing director for taxable fixed income at Southwest Securities. Feedback from Grant’s article, who consist of thousands of major institutional investors in the U.S. and abroad, never was so strongly in agreement. The mixed message from various Fed speakers were adding to the downward pressures in the market, they insisted. Since the U.S. central bank surprised many by opting not to initiate the first increase in nine years, no less than four Fed district presidents have spoken out about the decision. Rather than speaking out in a single voice, they’ve been split between those supporting the decision to delay rate hikes and those wanting an immediate move. Source Barrons.com 9/23/2015 Up and Down Wall Street, Randall W. Forsyth.

Questions call Paul @ 586 295 0430 or write him at pstanley@westminsterfinancial.com. Share this blog with someone who cares about their money.

SECURITIES OFFERED THROUGH WESTMINSTER FINANCIAL SECURITIES, INC. MEMBER FINRA/SIPC.

Monday, September 21, 2015

That Was The Week That Was-3rd Week September

 

Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged!charlie brown and lucy ‘Greatest Uncertainty is the Federal Reserve.’-CNBC 9/17/2015. Here we go again. Another round of not knowing if and when the Federal Reserve will raise rates. Markets were slightly up ahead of the Fed announcement and fell as the decision not to hike rates was made.

 

cramer 67Cramer Said The Fed Got it Right: It wouldn’t have surprised him to see the Dow nosedive 500 points, the dollar soar, emerging markets and China tank with any small amount of a rate hike. “Does it make sense to create turmoil because of an amorphous belief that inflation lurks around the corner?’ The Fed, according to Cramer, understood three critical things:

  • There is no inflation. A positive for stocks but not for workers.
  • Global ramifications of even a small rate hike. Europe trying to rebound but China and Brazil are struggling.
  • There is time to wait. (Yellen said in her press conference that the timing of the rate hike was not as important as the degree of the hike). CNBC Mad Money 9/17/2015

 

worry2  MARKET UNEASE MAY CONTINUE FOR SOME TIME. Robert C. Doll, CFA, Nuveen Asset Management, September 14, 2015.

  • Investor sentiment remains depressed, and volatility in equities is likely to persist.
  • Concerns over Fed policy are overstated and investors should not fear higher rates.
  • Economic fundamentals remain solid, which should eventually help earnings and equity prices improve.

Nuveen Asset Management, Weekly Investment Commentary, Source.

 mail111 The First Retirement Seminar Invitation of The New Seminar Season. I got mine a few days ago and I thought I’d share some thoughts on what to watch out for before you pick up the phone and make a reservation for the info-commercial and free ‘gourmet’ chicken dinner.

Today retirement seminars are held at restaurants, country clubs and other venues where a free meal is offered if you sit through a ‘info-pitch’. The more expensive the meal the higher the sales commission in the seller’s products. Don’t try to kid yourself or rationalize that the person holding the seminar is a ‘friend’ or someone who thinks well of you. If you’re eating a free chicken you can be assured that the host of the retirement seminar is chowing on Kobe and they mean you to pay for it. This type of sales harkens to the day of Florida raw land pitchmen who sold dirt through dinner seminars throughout the 1950s and 60s.

To get people into the seminar costs money. Seminar mailers are expensive. Figure the average about $1.50 per mailer, which includes manufacture, postage and labeling. About 10,000 mailers are sent, on average, to gain a reasonable response. The average meal at a ‘fancy’ restaurant is about $20.00 per head. Totaling it up someone is putting up about $20,000 on a bet that they’ll recoup that in new commissionable sales. Who pays for that upfront is not a company but the person who’s name is on the mailer. Eventually the attendees end up paying for the entire seminar plus a lot more through egregious commissions.

Who’s promoting the seminar can also be found on the mailer. Securities law demands a registered representative identify themselves and the broker/dealer affiliation on any and all advertising. You’ll read that as Joe Smith, registered representative of XYZ Securities, Inc., a Securities Broker/Dealer, Member FINRA/SIPC. If you don’t see that anywhere on the mailer you don’t know who or what the folks are that are promoting the retirement seminar, or what they are eventually selling. In most cases if not securities related it’ll be an insurance agent selling high commissionable annuities. You’ll know that if you see words and phrases as, ‘Guaranteed Income, Safe, Eliminate Market Declines.’ These are all catch-phrases of the insurance agent. Although it could also be real estate limited partnerships, precious metals, viatical settlements, or oil and gas deals.

In some cases the person could be selling anything from raw land to unregistered notes. They’ll all use words on the mailer that are related to retirement because they know that’s the group that has the money.

The fact that someone is willing to invest about $20,000 to get to your pocketbook tells you something. FINRA is so concerned about seminar practices that it has issued a ‘Free Lunch’ warning to retirees. You can read this by going to the FINRA web site or searching FINRA Free Lunch Warning on the internet.

 

strong6 If you’re wondering why your favorite ‘global’ stocks are in the tank it could be the ‘strong’ U.S. dollar. While a strong American dollar is great for consumers who buy foreign goods and go on vacation overseas; it is not so for companies that do business in many foreign countries. A strong currency makes U.S. exports and products more expensive to consumers in other countries. A strong dollar affects all business and investment sectors. As a company’s earnings are affected by the strong dollar so is its stock price.  Since July, 2014 the dollar is up 20%+ against a basket of currencies.

chart us dollar 2015

And the strong dollar has negatively affected the earnings growth of American Multinational Companies.

chart strong dollar

Investors who think a company may have lost its luster may well rethink that it may be that the company is caught in a strong dollar environment. Source Business Insider 9/12/2015

made me smile…cartoon september 23

cartoon 2015 12

 

Be Careful ETF Investors:

ETF INVESTORS SAW THEIR FUND CRASH WHILE UNDERLYING ASSETS WERE DOWN A FEW POINTS:

The Day the Markets Dropped 1,000 Points August 24th Dozens of Exchange Traded Funds Traded at Steep Discounts to the Sum of Their Holdings. WSJ 9/14/2015

chart etf crash 2015

The benefit of the ETF is to be able to buy and sell throughout the trading day but have the diversification of a mutual fund. On 8/24 one popular ETF was down 35% while the combined weighted value of the stocks the ETF held was down just 2.7%. Something, obviously, was and is not right.The problem is the ETF  has a wild anomaly which is a trading flaw when investors run to the exits. It seems that it is not as easy as the industry has predicted to get in and out of these products. What is particularly worrisome is how the BOND ETFs will react when investors hit the panic door. This problem isn’t in mutual funds. Mutual funds are priced at the close of business and everyone either sells or buys at that close and knows the exact price. WSJ 9/13/2015

 

Shoppers are back…

shopping bloomber daniel acker 2015 Dow up Tuesday +228 points news of renewed consumer confidence and U.S. retail sales rise 0.2%. Retail sales haven’t decreased for 6 consecutive months. Jesse Hurwitz. economist at Barclays, described consumers as ‘buoyant’, and predicted spending would be strong. The consumer will be the dominant force behind U.S. economic growth, he predicted. Strong spending in the spring helped the economy grow at an annual rate of 2.7% in the second quarter. WSJ 9/15/2015. SOURCE BLOOMBERG PHOTO.

bernie sanders5  Democrat Bernie Sanders Proposes Largest Peacetime Expansion of Government in Modern American History. The WSJ reported a $18 trillion for government run health care (expansion of Medicare to cover everyone), rebuild bridges and roads, expand Social Security and make tuition free at public colleges. There would also be huge tax increases to pay for the programs. Here is a chart as it appeared in the WSJ 9/16/2015

chart bernie sanders spending proposal 2015

 

Markets Dow Up 140 points Wednesday. A gauge of home builder sentiment rose to its highest level since November, 2005. wsj 9/16/2015

 

U.S. Consumer Prices Fall. A key measure of inflation dropped due to sliding gasoline prices. The CPI declined 0.1% from July. The decline was due entirely to depressed oil markets, which have pushed the price of gasoline down 23% over the past year. WSJ 9/16/2015

 

Questions call Paul @ 586 295 0430 or write him at pstanley@westminsterfinancial.com Share this blog with someone who cares about their money.

SECURITIES OFFERED THROUGH WESTMINSTER FINANCIAL SECURITIES, INC.  MEMBER FINRA/SIPC.

Monday, September 14, 2015

That Was The Week That Was-2nd Week September

 

wondering Corrections Are Nasty. If you’re one of those that pays attention to what’s happening with your money, and you’re a long-term non-trading type investor, you know there was a 10% market drop, for the first time in four years last month, then a huge reversal, and following that  continuing seismic testing of that markets low. These aftershocks, I reported a few weeks back quoting some very experienced professionals, will continue due to the initial severity of the initial market fall. It’s a technical thing and I don’t fully understand it and I expect people who’ve been doing this for a longer time than me don’t either. If you’re like most people you’re probably thinking the correction will never end and maybe wonder what you could have done to keep your money safe from the turbulence. For one you could have been invested in cash but that doesn’t make sense because cash didn’t make money this year, or last. In some countries savers pay banks to hold their cash. You may have thought fixed income. Bonds are facing higher interest rates and if you owned anything in the fixed income sector you’d be down about a point or two so far this year, and can expect more losses as the rate hike and years go by. There are, however, a few fixed indices where the return  has been slightly positive for the year. How well these same fixed investments perform going forward is a fair certain to the downside.The High Yield Index has been crushed year to date. Amateur investors have been mesmerized by the high yield on the High Yield that they’ve ignored their losses on principal. The REIT Index, with all its cash flow, is also down year-to-date. The S&P 500 Index is down for the year, but amazingly only negative 5.22%. Even the Retirement Target Date Plans have fallen. You would’ve thought investment houses would have done a better job in this sector. This includes all Target Date Retirement Composite Plans dated 2010-2060. Utilities are down, as are energy, financials, industrials, materials, telecommunications and information technology sectors.

Mutual fund managers, where most of us have our money invested, are either actively managing, holding still due to index restrictions, or rebalancing for the next market leg up.

Gold is down year-to-date as is silver. The metals are supposedly hedges but have not performed well recently. That’s because there is no inflation, and sometimes investors forget that. The dollar is strong, no inflation (again I mention, or very little) in sight. Foreign, emerging markets and global real estate have also been pummeled.

2015_09_07_cmyk_NL_

This whole ‘asset-allocation’ concept, using bonds, cash, stocks (both domestic and foreign), failed but you don’t hear much news about that. In fact the ‘asset allocation’ purists are fairly mum about what’s been happening. Conservative income or balanced funds have been hit since they hold cash, stocks, bonds and preferreds. Their recipe is that everything that’s down they hold. The new-new market hurts investors who need to hold bonds. The new-new rules are cash for stability but not income. You don’t get to hear that from brokers because there is no money to be made in cash. And I don’t get that from dealer fund representatives for the same reason.

You could have ‘allocated’ using some of the Long-Short Mutual Funds. The problem, which I investigated, is that you need a whole lot of ‘Long-Short’ to make a difference. You cannot simply hold a small amount and expect the fund to do wonders for your entire portfolio. The bottom line is that the Long-Short to make a difference should be your (entire) portfolio.

Which brings me to ‘what should I have done or where should I go when the noise subsides?’. Getting paid is pretty darn important for a long-term or retired investor whether its an up, down or sideways market. For that I like dividends. I like companies that grow their dividends, and have a history of doing so. If it’s a great company with a nice dividend and the company stock gets hammered along with everyone else there are two things I do: I don’t worry (which doesn’t mean I like it) and I may buy more, if I have cash sitting idling by on the sidelines.

You should always have a shopping list in times like this because this is when the ‘smart’ investor buys what they like at prices that are ‘attractive’. If you don’t have the spare cash than using those dividends to reinvest and buy more shares on the discounted share price works as well. The result is that these are ‘buying’ opportunities and not calamities. The very worst thing you can do is sell and hide to cash. The reason is simple and that’s because no one is smart enough to know when to get back in. Selling is easy-buying is hard. SOURCES VANGUARD, MORNINGSTAR, FIDELITY FUNDS.BLOOMBERG 9/7/2015

 grocery2It isn’t difficult for me to understand why someone would buy as many cans of tuna fish as they could afford when they are on sale because they know (without anyone telling them), the price will eventually go back up. What makes me wonder is why that same person doesn’t buy quality, dividend paying stocks when they go on sale?

 

There’s a lot of truth in jest…source IBD

 cartoon mount obama

cartoon obamanomics

Relief Rally Tuesday! The Dow closed up 390 points, also up was the S&P 500 and Naz. Gold was down.  Not everyone was thrilled with the huge upside market day. According to Barry Ritholtz, who was quoted in Barrons.com, about his blog on Bloomberg, ‘Investors are better served by smaller multi-rallies than big one-day relief rallies.’ He went on to point out that big one day gains occur when the market has already run into trouble, and often are technical in nature (here is that technical stuff again with no explanation). Michael Batnick, of the Irrelevant Investors, pointed out that 22 of the 25 best single days in stocks occurred under the 200-day moving average. The more gradual gains reflect a healthier accumulation and not a reflexive reaction. Still for the buy and hold investor 390 points to the upside is 390 points to the upside. Barrons.com The Trouble with Relief Rallies. 9/9/2015

Warren Buffett, ‘Economy not bad but not booming.’ The Oracle was on CNBC Squawk Alley Tuesday and said that we’re on the same track that we’ve been on for six years. He doesn’t think interest rates should be ‘way’ higher than European rates. He explained one couldn’t have high rates here and low rates there. There are consequences to that. He also said the U.S. was growing at a rate of 2%.Source CNBC 9/8/2015. In other words it’s a slow growth economy, and I got a feeling corporations and small businesses are simply waiting out this current Administration, which is just my unconfirmed gut feeling.

 

y2kaThe End of the World in 3-Weeks? I got a phone call from a former client last Thursday who asked me what I thought what’s going on in the marketplace and I gave him my best estimate and he told me I had it all wrong and that according to a certain ‘Rabbi’ he follows the world’s economies are going to go belly-up within a few weeks. In other words it was a doomsday scenario on the horizon. He asked if I’ve heard that and I said, no. Well, he said, he has and he’s telling everyone (meaning my caller is) to pull their money from all investment accounts and hold them in money markets because this ‘un-named’ Rabbi has a great history of being spot on with his global calamitous predictions. I asked if this be true shouldn’t he be buying gold, silver or some other commodities? My former client couldn’t answer that. He hemmed and hawed, and said that money markets were definitely the place to be. I let it go at that and we parted company partly because I had little to add and primarily because he provided few details of the impending global catastrophe. Which reminded me that years earlier I had liquidated all the investments of another client at her request because she had it on good advice that the world was ending and she was stocking up on cases and cases of olive oil, as it would be the next new currency of the world. That didn’t happen and neither did Y2K. But, you never can tell when some one eventually gets it right. I really should get a new phone number. wrong

Two Old Timers With 100 Years Stock Market Experience Say, ‘The Time is Now to Buy Stocks.’ Sam Eisenstadt, former director of research at Value Line and Norman Fosback, former president of the Institute for Econometric Research, and the Fosback’s Fund Forecaster, were quoted in MarketWatch.com. Fosback said that there would always be a ‘convenient’ excuse for a price correction. If it wasn’t China it would be something else, he said. Both gents are recommending that investors re-evaluate equities and re-position their portfolios to more advantageous levels.  Fosback is dismissive of the Chinese devaluation and he calculates the U.S. imports more than 4 times more from China as we export, so the recent currency devaluation helps the U.S. more than it hurts.  Source MarketWatch.com 9/9/2015

More Volatility Thursday as Markets Climbed Triple Digits But Closed Off Their Highs.

Questions, call Paul @ 586 295 0430 or write him @ pstanley@westminsterfinancial.com. Share this blog with someone who cares about their money.

Securities Offered Through Westminster Financial Securities, Inc., MEMBER FINRA/SIPC.

Friday, September 4, 2015

That Was The Week That Was–1st Week September

 

Labor Day Edition… 

angryThe Worst August in 3 Years. There were no winners for the month of August. A correction, long overdue, saw prices plummet due to concerns of a slowing China as well as ‘uncertainty’ regarding Federal Reserve policy. Oil prices advanced at the close of the month as OPEC struggles to come to grip with low oil prices and global glut. Russia remains in a recession as low oil prices force economic hardship due to their chief export. Economic domestic unease has kept mortgage rates below 4%. These low rates should be a boost for housing, and the broader economy, according to Bob Doll, CFA, Nuveen Asset Management. Even with the massive selloff at the beginning of the last week of August investors saw a rebound in prices at the end of the week.Investors saw it as an oversold situation and the S&P 500 Index actually gained 1.0%. There was massive technical damage done in the sudden correction and investors can expect more volatility, and not be surprised to see last week’s lows tested further. Investors would be well served, according to Bob Doll, CFA, in his weekly newsletter of August 31st, not only to hold but to overweight equity positions.  Sources WSJ, NUVEEN WEEKLY INVESTMENT COMMENTARY, CNBC/AUGUST 31, 2015.JIM CRAMER, MAD MONEY 8/31/2015

 

speculation44It’s Speculators Not Speculating and Speculating What Other Speculators Think!-Jack Bogle. ‘The Biggest exercise in sheer unadulterated speculation. Nothing to do with fundamentals, particularly the long-term value of equities.’ Bogle, founder of Vanguard Group, and a pioneer in Index Investing, said this on CNBC Power Lunch August 28th. This was in response to the ‘chatter’ on the market’s correction.

 

WSJ: SELLOFF FAILED TO RATTLE INVESTORS. STUBBORNLY BELIEVE BEST PLACE TO BE IN STOCKS.

CHART THE WEEK THAT WAS AUGUST 2015

SOURCE WSJ 8/29/2015

 

overIt Ain’t Over Till It’s Over… China Has Another 15% To Fall Before It Hits Bottom. The average stock in the Shanghai Composite trades at 15 times earnings, a fall from its peak of 22 times in July but experts say that’s too rich compared with the 10x’s trading earlier in 2015. Michael Parker, a Sanford C. Bernstein strategist says, ‘That for China stocks to find bottom there needs to be evidence of more effective policy making from Beijing than we’ve currently seen.’ Top of his wish list is for the Yuan to stabilize at 6.4 against the U.S. dollar. If you’re anxious to buy China stocks look for strong fundamentals or all-weather companies. Another China down draft could well be followed by a downturn for U.S. stocks as well. source Barrons.com  8/29/2015 China looms Monday last on stock futures.

 

broke555Bonds?! Clients have been out of bonds for 2-years but the average retail investor still hangs in, chasing yields, seemingly not understanding how rising rates will destroy principal. The Goldman Sachs debt trading unit has lost $50-$60 million, as of August 26th, according to Business Insider Jonathan Marino. While $50-$60 million is not, in the world of Wall Street, a huge number, it is significant that the bank lost money in fixed income. Energy bonds especially have taken a beating this year but retail investors can view the total return for just about any fund designated as fixed income and while the yield may be attractive the net result is pathetic. Junk bonds, or what Wall Street likes to call, High Yield, sometimes sub-headed into what is called, Distressed High Yield, are in a heap of trouble, according to Wolf Richter, Business Insider, August 15th. In August these bonds dropped 5.4%, since mid-May the Distressed Bond Index lost 19%. In the last 12-months the index lost 28%,chart us distressed debt  august 2015 chart source Business Insider 8/15 & 8/25.

 

sick computerBuying or Selling a Mutual Fund Just Got Glitchy. Another computer glitch, a euphuism for a major screw-up by someone in IT, has prevented dozens of mutual funds and ETFs from promptly pricing their securities. The problem stemmed from a breakdown at Bank of NY Mellon Corp., the largest fund custodian in the world. Without proper pricing mutual fund sales and sells were in limbo. Investors who were trading ETFs found it made their trades more costly since pricing was totally out of whack. Those affected included funds by Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., ETFs offered by Guggenheim Partners, LLC and funds offered through Federated Investors. Prudential Financial, Inc. and Voya Investment Management were also impacted. Usually in these cases fund companies will make clients whole and then resort to suing Bank of NY Mellon, if they don’t accept liability.  WSJ 8/27/2015

made me wonder…

cartoons ibd

cartoon ibd 2

source Investors Business Daily

 

FYI BEAR MARKETS… Note duration and drop. chart bear markets historical

source business insider businessinsider.com 8/28/2015

Nothing is forever. The longest Bear Market the Great Recession lasted 34 months.

SHOPPER55 Yes, the American Consumer is alive and well. The WSJ reported 8/28/2015 Americans continued to ‘step up’ their spending in July. The Commerce Department reported that household spending increased 0.3% matching June’s pace.Workers wages also increase at the fastest pace since November. Most of the spending was on big ticket items such as cars and kitchen appliances. source Department of Commerce/WSJ 8/28/2015

 

 

labor day Have a safe and fun holiday.

 

QUESTIONS CALL PAUL @ 485 295 0430 or WRITE HIM @ pstanley@westminsterfinancial.com. SHARE THIS BLOG WITH SOMEONE WHO CARES ABOUT THEIR MONEY.

SECURITIES OFFERED THROUGH WESTMINSTER FINANCIAL SECURITIES, INC. MEMBER FINRA/SIPC.