I can tell when the markets are about to move up and when they're a few days from crashing. I dont need to read anything, talk to anyone in the business and can do this blindfolded. Clients start calling me to tell me to sell what they already own or ask what's out there that they should be buying. Depending on which side of the trade they're on the markets will generally act inversely.
I can understand exactly what my clients are feeling. When markets fall they think there is no bottom, and when the markets start to recover they believe that the recovery is in a straight line with no deviation.
A few weeks ago I started getting those calls from clients who had sold off and placed their money in money markets. They started to get antsy seeing the indices move substantially off their lows and thinking that perhaps they had missed the bus. They didn't.
A few months ago oil was trading at a tad over $50. a barrel and with a glut of the stuff on the market investors felt sure that the price would come down. It didnt. Oil shot up over $70 a barrel and it did it because oil is traded in dollars and our dollar had weakened significantly.
Now policy makers on both sides of the Atlantic are trying to get to curb what they think is oil speculation and stop a huge run-up before it happens. China seems to understand this dollar to oil trade and has made noise for the world to move to another global currency. Why western political-types can't understand this is almost as significant.
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